Data for: Underprediction of extirpation and colonisation following climate and land-use change using species distribution models

Associated dataset for published paper. The dataset contains data used for evaluating the performance of species distribution models in relation to species’ climate associations, and experienced changes in climate and land use. First, ensemble species distribution models were built for 84 vascular plant species in three provinces in Sweden (Bohuslän, Öland and Uppland) using historical climate (1961-1970), land use (1940s-1960s) and species observations (approx. 1910-1945) in 1055 5 × 5 km grid cells. Then these models were evaluated using internal cross-validation (predicting presences in the same time period in a subset of withheld grid cells) and independent temporal validation, where models were re-parameterised using modern climate (2001-2010) and land-use data (2018), and predicted presences compared to modern observed occurrences (1990-2020). This dataset contains the proportion of observed colonisations, persistences and extirpations (local extinctions) for each species, together with species’ climate and habitat associations. It also contains the proportion of observed colonisations, persistences and extirpations for all species in each grid cell, together with the observed changes in climate (mean annual temperature) and land use (grassland abandonment). Please see the README file for information regarding the data files and the variables within. SpeciesData.csv: 84 rows × 24 columns GridSquareData.csv: 1038 rows × 23 columns Output (AnalysisCode_log.txt and pdf plots) kan be generated by running: Rscript AnalysisCode.R > AnalysisCode_log.txt Session info (also included in the log file): R version 4.3.1 (2023-06-16) Platform: x86_64-pc-linux-gnu (64-bit) Running under: Gentoo Linux Matrix products: default BLAS: /usr/lib64/libblas.so.3.11.0 LAPACK: /usr/lib64/R/lib/libRlapack.so; LAPACK version 3.11.0 locale: [1] LC_CTYPE=C.UTF8 LC_NUMERIC=C LC_TIME=C.UTF8 [4] LC_COLLATE=C.UTF8 LC_MONETARY=C.UTF8 LC_MESSAGES=C.UTF8 [7] LC_PAPER=C.UTF8 LC_NAME=C LC_ADDRESS=C [10] LC_TELEPHONE=C LC_MEASUREMENT=C.UTF8 LC_IDENTIFICATION=C time zone: Europe/Stockholm tzcode source: system (glibc) attached base packages: [1] stats graphics grDevices utils datasets methods base other attached packages: [1] visreg_2.7.0 loaded via a namespace (and not attached): [1] compiler_4.3.1 grid_4.3.1 lattice_0.21-8